🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|